The Facts: What are UK’s Final Four Chances?

BY RICK BURCHFIELD
The Final Four. Three words that ring in college basketball fan’s ear like church bells on Sunday. Basketball programs across the country covet this achievement and as most of us (Kentucky Fans) know reaching the Final Four isn’t easily done. So what does it take? Well, for starters, chemistry, tradition, an accomplished coach, and the right match-ups. But let’s get real. What teams really need is pure, no frills, extraordinary talent. The kind of talent it takes to play at the next level.

It’s highly unlikely for a team to find the end of the road to the Final Four without a single pro-caliber player. Of the 96 teams that reached the Final Four between 1985—the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams—and 2008, 94 had at least one player who eventually appeared in an NBA game. (Leaving aside the 2009 and 2010 Final Four participants, since several of their key players are still in school.) The two exceptions: Oklahoma in 2002 and George Mason, the king of all underdogs, in 2006.
In fact, having a single future NBA player is usually not enough: 91% of all Final Four teams over this span have had at least two and the majority of teams had at least four. The 1996 Kentucky Wildcats had nine, including 13-year NBA veteran Nazr Mohammed, who seldom played that season. Among the few that had just one future NBA player were Florida (Andrew DeClercq) in 1994, Oklahoma State (Bryant “Big Country” Reeves) in 1995 and Syracuse (John Wallace) and (a John Calipari coached) UMass (Marcus Camby) in 1996.
This all seems too familiar, especially those Kentucky fans still feeling the sting of last years ouster by way of a West Virginia in the Elite Eight, just one win away from a Final Four appearance. Of course, last years class graduated five Kentucky basketball players to the NBA, in the first round! Given the statistics, Kentucky should have easily advanced. If only they could have hit from beyond the arch, Kentucky having one of the worst three-point displays of last year’s season, at the absolute worst time.

What will happen this year? Can this years Kentucky squad reach the Final Four with the talent they have? We will just have to wait and see.
BY THE NUMBERS: Producing Pros
A breakdown of how many future NBA players were on Final Four teams from 1985 to 2008.
NUMBER OF NBA PLAYERS: % FINAL FOUR TEAMS
Nine Players : 1% (1996 Kentucky)
Eight Players: 1% (1991 North Carolina )
Seven Players: 0%
Six Players: 9%
Five Players: 22%
Four Players: 23%
Three Players: 21%
Two Players: 14%
One Player: 7%
No Players: 2% (2002 Oklahoma, 2006 George Mason)
Source: Basketball-Reference
Statistics courtesy of: Darren Everson and the Wall Street Journal // www.wsj.com